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Quarterly Market Report

by Jeremy Cox 1. February 2008 00:00
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Most of the data contained in this report is very courteously and kindly provided by the folks from Kansas at the Aircraft Bluebook - Price Digest, As always I would like to especially thank Mr. Paul Wyatt, the Bluebook Editor for the use of his data in the production of my report. I hope that you find the report of some use to you.

STORM CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLY FORMING? …OR IS IT JUST A NORMAL CORRECTION?

Even though the Overall Market has been showing an increase in value 'Across the Board', equal to 2.84% over the last twelve months, a large portion of this gain is still due to the continuing 'massive' increases in value of the Large Cabin, Long Range Aircraft especially from the Gulfstream V/500/550 Series and also the Global Express. I track 58 individual aircraft series/types in my quarterly for Globalair. A total of 33 of these aircraft are still 'up' for the last twelve months. 20 of them are up this month, which has helped to keep this quarters number up by 0.54% overall from last Quarterly Report. Unfortunately even though 0.54% appears to glow with health, there are storm clouds looming on the horizon, borne out both by the percentage change this quarter compared to the last (0.54% versus 1.3%) and also the various economic indices' that are also tracked and included in everyone of my reports. I shall show you graphically what I am seeing:





The Challenger 300 still continues it's powerful streak 8.01% since the last report, and 17.42% overall (in the last twelve months.) The next biggest 'gainer' this quarter is the Aerospaciale/Eurocopter 350/355 Series helicopters. These aircraft have gained a 6.16% increase in value since the last report (Autumn 2007) which is more of a recovery as the twelve month performance shows an overall increase of only 3.71%.


The real surprise of 2007 is the Pilatus PC12. This aircraft has experienced an overall twelve month gain of 9.66; a large chunk of that being achieved between now and the last quarter (a whopping 5.22% since my last report.)


The Piper PA46 Meridian has lost all of its gains that it made over 2007, by dropping 4.72% since the last report, effectively leaving 2007 with the same value that it started with in late 2006.


The biggest surprise for some, including me, is the Beechcraft Baron 55/58 Series. These venerable aircraft has dropped 3.64% since the last report. Maybe the days of people spending a million dollars for a small piston-twin are over?

Beechcraft Baron 55/58

So the big question is: 'are we on the brink of a recession?' This quarter's report appears to indicate a general softening; but the overall market is still 'up', as is the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. Hopefully we are merely seeing a normal market correction, and there are plenty of blue skies ahead. What do you think?

Okay, I will see you next month and please remember that any input that you care to make will be of great interest to all of the readers here at Globalair.com. So please don't be bashful and go ahead and write your comments and suggestions here. Please don't forget that whatever you write here, can be seen publicly by everyone that visits this page, so please be funny, be inspired, but most importantly of all, please be nice.

Historical Data

LabelData
OPEC Basket Price $84.58
One Year Ago $51.20
Dow Jones IA 12,207
One Year Ago 12,523
LIBOR % Rate (USD) 4.27125
One Year Ago 5.38688
FBO / Fuel Prices by Region (Full Service JETA)
Central Region $4.48
Eastern Region $4.87
Great Lakes Region $4.57
New England Region $4.74
Northwest Mountain Region $4.68
Southern Region $4.73
Southwest Region $4.53
Western Pacific Region $4.82
Alaska Region $5.16

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Jeremy Cox



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