Aircraft For Sale Aviation Articles

What’s Good About Used Aircraft Sales? Market Changes Could Stimulate Used Jet Sales…

Article written by and with permission:
Michael D Chase
Principal
Chase & Associates
1628 Snowmass Place
Lewisville, TX 75077
www.mdchase.aero
Cell: 214-226-9882 • Office: +1.972-966-1440
services@mdchase.com

Questions about the Business Aviation recovery still linger as there has not been much market movement to date. With most of 2017 behind us, however, we may be on the ‘cusp of change’. ‘For Sale’ inventories are down and aircraft transactions are up, while business jet prices remain weak.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3% percent in Q3 2017, according to the ‘advance’ estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In Q2, real GDP increased 3.1%. This is welcome news because, as we have historically seen, when GDP is at the 3% growth mark (or higher) Business Aviation traditionally does well.

These quarterly GDP changes between 2009 and 2017 can be viewed in Table A. Highlighted in yellow are the quarters that GDP was 3% or higher. Historically, we have not seen two back-to-back quarterly GDP increases of 3% or more since Q2 and Q3 2014.

 

 

The ‘For Sale’ Inventory

Chart A illustrates that the ‘For Sale’ inventory of Business Jets has decreased steadily from a high-point in July 2009 (2,938) to 2,225 jets in September 2017. That’s a reduction in the percentage of the in-service fleet from 17.7% in July 2009 to 10.4% now. This is a positive sign as the inventory ‘For Sale’ is dropping, albeit slowly.

Today’s market remains good for buyers because the aircraft ‘For Sale’ inventory remains over 10%. If jet owners are retaining their business jets longer since the downturn began in 2008, perhaps that would help explain why the used business jets ‘For Sale’ inventory has remained at such high levels since the Great Recession.

The percentage ‘For Sale’ has dropped from 11.0% in January 2017 to 10.4% at the end of September 2017. Indeed, most aircraft business jet dealers and brokers today would tell you that the pristine used jets that were on the market a few years ago have become more challenging to locate.

 

 

Used Full Sale Transactions (Including Whole Sales & Leases)

Further analysis of January-September 2017 shows mixed results for the six segments reported by JETNET in the September 2017 YTD Market Information release that included full sale transactions increase for business jets (5.9%), turbine helicopters (5.7%) and Commercial Airliners (8.8%) in YTD numbers (YTD September 2017 versus YTD September 2016).

The remaining three segments reported double-digit decreases in transactions with piston helicopters (-14.1%) showing the largest drop in YTD 2017 vs 2016.

Charts B & C depict the 12-Month used business jet and turbine helicopter moving average, displayed for the full retail transactions from January 2012 to September 2017.

From January 2012, used business jet transactions steadily increased until 2014—from 2,300 to over 2,800. A leveling-off followed in 2015, and 2016 produced mixed activity (while remaining well above the 2,800 line of transactions).

Since dropping to 2,652 transactions in January 2017 the used business jet market segment has shown a sharp recovery through September 2017 (2,833). This could be a result of built-up demand in the US after the newly-elected government administration finds its footing and the stock market continues to climb to record highs.

 

 

Since reaching a low point in January 2017, the used turbine helicopter market segment has shown a very rapid recovery leading into September 2017 (see Chart C). This is great news, and could indicate better days ahead for the turbine helicopter market.

 

US Jet-A Fuel Price

As of November 6, 2017, US Jet-A average price was $4.76/gallon and appeared to be on the rise. This fuel cost increase could have a negative impact on some of the progress we have been making in business aircraft flight activity. Nevertheless, today’s price is still around $2.00 less than the 2012 record fuel price of $6.84/gallon, as shown in Chart D.

 

The past 12 months of flight operations from September 2017 have been running 2.3% ahead of last year. Flight operations have not reached the peak of 2007 yet, but the trend is a positive sign nonetheless.

 

 

In Summary

Historically, the fourth quarter of the year reflects the most sales growth over the other quarters. We expect to see further growth in Q4 2017 to round out a very good year for used business jets and turbine helicopters. ‘For Sale’ inventories are slowly coming down and sales transactions continue to trend in a positive direction. We keep our fingers crossed and will continue to monitor business aircraft activity through future articles.

The Aircraft Acquisition Plan

 

There are two fundamental reasons for acquiring new or different aircraft: (1) the current aircraft can no longer perform the mission and/or (2) the current aircraft is no longer the most cost effective solution.

Changes in mission need to be both quantified and qualified. For example, one client in the Southwest US was looking at significantly more travel to the West Coast. Their turboprop could not do the trip nonstop with the required passenger load. Their travel pattern was changing. Another client was looking at non-stop from the US to Asia. But this client was only flying that trip four to six times per year. 

If your company downsized or just sold the international division, then why continue to operate a long range aircraft? Maybe the mission has grown in a different direction. Rather than carrying a family of four on a heli-tour, you have an opportunity for electronic news gathering or have won a contract to haul a geological team to a remote site. The aircraft is a tool that enables you to get the job done. Sometimes, you need a different tool. 

You need to quantify to magnitude of the change. And, for the purchaser, what sort of value will changing aircraft the ability of the company (or individual) to be  successful? How important is non-stop versus one-stop? How much value is added by having a couple ore passenger seats? 

Economics also come into play. While the mission remains essentially the same, maybe your current aircraft is facing significant costs. Our studies and many others indicate that as aircraft age, the costs to maintain it increase. Along with the increase in cost comes an increase in the number of days per year the aircraft is in for maintenance. Additionally, for out of production aircraft, especially those with limited production runs or from manufacturers who no longer build aircraft, the availability and pricing of spares can be a serious issue. For a commercial operator, the loss of revenue from not being able to fly as many days can be worse than the added cost of maintenance. 

What is the long term cost of keeping the current aircraft versus replacing it with a newer one? I’ll discuss how to do this costing in a future article.

Whatever the reason for suggesting an equipment change and before making recommendations to senior management it pays to have a good Aircraft Acquisition Plan

To build up justification for changing or even acquiring an aircraft, you must have a plan. An aircraft acquisition plan must at a minimum:

- Identify and quantify the air transportation needs.

- Differentiate between "required" (or must have) criteria and "desired" (or nice to have) criteria.

>- Identify the aircraft best capable of meeting the transportation needs.

- Compare each of the aircraft against the requirements and rank order them.

- Contain an analysis of all the costs involved with acquiring an aircraft: acquisition, operating, and residual values. Also needed to be considered are taxes and market depreciation.

Just as a successful business has a plan for the future, so should the aviation operation. Once an aircraft is in operation, it usually is there for at least five years and often for much longer. Therefore your Aircraft Acquisition Plan should look out for at least a minimum of five years, or as long as you expect to operate that model. 

Your plan should be void of emotional issues and stay as far from subjective criteria as possible. Having firm numbers doesn't remove all questions, but it does offer a justification based on reasoned thought. If someone wants to adjust the numbers, it is far easier to reflect that change in an updated plan and to see the effect on the results. 

The final decision maker may make a final decision that leaves us pondering the result. Those emotion-led decisions are are fine to those who can accept 100% of the risk and 100% of the reward. As an advisor, we need to have a well thought out, analytical plan. 

In detail, an effective plan consists of the following elements:

- The organization's real aircraft needs.

- Key missions and evaluation parameters.

- Sources of information.

- Technical analysis and ranking.

- Fleet size.

- Financial alternatives.

- Financial analysis and ranking.

- Tax Planning.

I'll address all these over the next months as a continuing series. 

 

Leading Edge Aviation Solutions - Teams up to provide key benefits to clients

KEY PLAYERS IN THE AVIATION INDUSTRY COLLABORATE WITH BROKER/DEALER LEADING EDGE AVIATION SOLUTIONS TO PROVIDE BENEFITS TO LEADING EDGE CLIENTS

Some of the most prestigious aviation firms in our industry--Argus, FlightSafety International, Marsh, and MedAire—together with broker/dealer Leading Edge Aviation Solutions announced at the National Business Aviation Association Exhibition and Convention in Las Vegas on Wednesday, October 11, 2017 that they have collaborated with Leading Edge Aviation Solutions in an exclusive benefits program. All were present at MedAire’s booth at the NBAA convention to make the announcement.

This program will offer discounts or other benefits for certain of their products or services to Leading Edge Aviation Solutions’ clients who are buying or selling their aircraft through Leading Edge and/or utilizing Leading Edge technical or consulting services in the buy/sell process. Leading Edge calls this benefits opportunity for their clients “THE EDGE – Benefits”

Leading Edge Aviation Solutions

THE EDGE® is Leading Edge Aviation Solutions’ complete suite of services for buying, selling, technical services, and consulting for aviation. We couldn’t be prouder to now include “THE EDGE-Benefits” in our service offering.

Joe Carfagna, Jr., President of Leading Edge Aviation Solutions said, “We are proud of THE EDGE-Benefits program for our clients, and most especially we are delighted and privileged to work with some of our industry’s key players in effecting and maintaining the program.“

“MedAire is excited to offer industry-leading travel safety solutions to THE EDGE--Benefits program,” said Vice President Strategic Partnerships, Jeffrey Dickey. MedAire has over 30 years of expertise providing medical and security advisory services, medical kits, and first responder training to give you the resources to take the best possible care of passengers and crew members — wherever you travel, whatever may happen."

“ARGUS is proud to be part of this exciting program”, said Joe Moeggenberg, President & CEO of ARGUS International. “THE EDGE--Benefits will continue to provide value added products and services to Leading Edge clients long after the transaction is completed.”

Dave Davenport, Executive Vice President, Commercial said “FlightSafety International is pleased to serve as the preferred training provider for THE EDGE--Benefits program . We look forward to providing Leading Edge customers with the highest quality training, outstanding service, and value they deserve and expect from FlightSafety.”

Joseph Braunstein, General Aviation Practice Leader, for Marsh, said: “Marsh is proud to be the preferred insurance broker for Leading Edge and assist its clients in the placement and servicing of their aircraft hull and liability insurance.”

Leading Edge Aviation Solutions is one of the aviation industry’s premier private aviation broker/dealers with over 28 years of experience in the aviation marketplace. Leading Edge is a leading expert in the sale, purchase and valuation of corporate, business and private aircraft with over $10 billion in total aircraft sales,acquisitions and new aircraft deliveries and acceptances in that period. We also offer consulting and technical services where we advise some of the world’s most successful people and companies in various aspects of private aviation.

Five Tips for Aircraft Financing/Leasing

There is money available today if you are interested in financing or leasing a business aircraft. Interest rates are still low. Here are five rules for getting financing or leasing.

Rule #1. Dance with the one you brought.

Relationships matter. Financial institutions are looking for long-term relationships. If you have done significant business with one institution over the years, they are the first ones to approach for any aircraft financing or leasing. One private banker told me "If you have $300 million in assets with (my bank) there is no way we won't do an aircraft deal with you." Part of this is the significant investment the financial institution has made in keeping you, and your cash, in the bank. The other is that in cultivation and supporting your business, they have a very good idea as to your character.

Rule #2. Character counts.

The Four C's of financing are Character, Credit, Collateral, and Cash Flow. Do you have the credit available for the deal in mind? Aircraft deals can be far more complex than other assets. Any financial institution needs to manage and measure their financial risk and it starts with your credit. Another part in managing the risk is what other assets do you have to guarantee the aircraft deal? Standalone, the financial institution may not want to do interest-only financing, but if you have cash, stocks, and other investments well in excess of the aircraft value, then the risk is lessened. Can you keep the aircraft flying? For $2 million you can buy a 15-year old turboprop or a 22-year old large cabin jet. However, the annual operating budgets are going to be vastly different. Can you afford the $3 million engine overhaul on the jet? Character, whether are you a person of your word, counts more than all the above.

Character ties into rule number one above. The financial institution wants to know, not only from a balance sheet perspective, but from who you our your company is, will you stand by the deal? Given enough money for lawyers, it seems like most contracts can be broken or amended. The financial institution is looking for a trustworthy account.

Our company founder and dear friend, Al Conklin, told me that he measured every sale by the value of the person's handshake. If he didn't trust the person, no amount of legal contracts and forms would make him feel good about the deal.

Rule #3. Get what you need, don't overbuy. 

Aircraft are wonderful business tools. They get you to many places far faster than any other mode of transportation. They enable you to make the out of every minute and do so in a safe and secure environment. Given the availability of pre-owned aircraft you can easily step up in size nod capability for not a lot more money. Get the aircraft that does the majority of your flying in a cost effective manner. Need or want the big cabin plane? Then charter one when necessary. 

I had one client who would not consider a plane in which he could not stand up in the use the lavatory! The smaller cabin jet was less costly to own and operate, but he wanted and was willing to pay to stand. He ended up not buying and continuing to charter. If you do decide to upsize, make sure you understand the ramifications of the budget and are willing to pay.

Rule #4. Communication is key. 

For the lessor, lender, or insurance broker to make sure you get the best service, make sure they understand how you plan to use the aircraft. Will you be doing charter? Will it stay in North America or spend a lot of time in other locations? Are their management agreements? If so, is the financial institution protected adequately in terms of a loss or lien?

Rule #5. Plan.

While a cash-only transaction can be done in the time it takes for a wire transfer to occur, even the aircraft registration process will take more time than that. A US-only financed deal can take three to four weeks at the absolute fastest. Better plan on a month or more. If there are two countries involved, if the Ex-Im Bank is involved in the financing, plan on three to four months minimum for the deal and the importation of the aircraft. 

Financing or leasing a business aircraft is complicated and involves significant finances. You should have qualified aviation legal and tax advice. 

 

The Top 10 Business Jets

It’s hard to believe that just over 100 years ago, flying was just a pipe dream.  We’ve come a long way and now aviation has a part to play in many industries and has become its own segment of the aerospace industry.  “Business aviation” refers to any aircraft that are used in furtherance of a business.  According to the National Business Aviation Association, business aviation contributes approximately $150 billion to economic output and employs at least 1.2 million people (NBAA.org).  While only about 3% of the 15,000 registered business aircraft are flown by Fortune 500 companies, the rest belong to varying sizes of for-profit and not-for-profit companies all over the United States – this includes universities, local and federal government, and other businesses. 

Arguably, the future of aviation is business aviation and Globalair.com has their top ten picks for business aircraft backed up by several years of experience in aircraft sales. 

#10: Gulfstream 550 (G550)

If there is one company that evokes luxury in their aircraft, Gulfstream Aerospace has to be it.  The sleek frame of the G550 cuts through the air at 0.80 Mach using two Rolls-Royce BR710 engines with a max cruising altitude at 51,000 feet.  This luxury jet can be configured up to 19 passengers and sleeps 8 comfortably.  If you’re looking to escape the cares of everyday life easily, or reach your international group in England, the G550 has a range of almost 7,000 nautical miles (nm).

While it boasts a comfortable ride for passengers (a cabin over 40 feet long), pilots aren’t soon forgotten with the state of the art PlaneView™ flight deck featuring some of the most advanced avionics known in existence.  The flight deck features four liquid crystal displays for your flight crew with easy software upgrades making it compatible to your flight department, no matter how big or small.  Additionally, a Head-Up Display (HUD) is included in the G550 that projects flight data in the pilot’s forward-looking field of vision.  In times of reduced or obscured vision, such as inclement weather, the Enhanced Vision System (EVS) uses infrared technology to capture what the pilot cannot see – runway markings, taxiways, and other terrain are now visible in poor weather conditions.

According to the NBAA, the G550 has the reliability of 99.9% -- this means out of five years of service, you will only miss one trip (Gulfstream.com).  In a world where time equals money, this is a statistic to get behind.

#9: Gulfstream 200 (G200)

The little brother to the G550, the G200 had its first flight on Christmas Day in 1997 and was later released in 1999.  While Gulfstream no longer produces the G200, it doesn’t keep it from being a popular used aircraft.  It was originally named the “Astra Galaxy”.

Like most Gulfstream aircraft, the G200 boasts a large cabin size that can hold to 18 passengers, but typically configured for 8-10 passengers.  Unlike the Rolls-Royce engines, the G200 runs on two Pratt & Whitney Canada PW306A turbofans producing a maximum cruise spend at 0.80 Mach, similar to the G550.  While it has approximately the same cruising speed, the G200 has almost half the range at 3,400 nm at 45,000 feet which makes it a perfect aircraft for domestic flights here in the U.S.

From this description, the G200 can be seen not only as a predecessor to the G550, but the smaller, less expensive version of the G550.  The G200 is an excellent aircraft for a business that does mostly domestic flights.

#8: Hawker 4000

Taking a break from the Gulfstream family, the Hawker 4000 hails from Beechcraft which is owned by Textron Aviation – the parent company to Cessna and others.  Produced from 2011 to 2013, the Hawker 4000 was quickly realized as the top jet product by Beechcraft.

A worthy competitor to the G200 as well as slightly newer, it can seat up to ten people (14 maximum) and has average of 6 feet of standing room in the interior cabin.  It cruises at 45,000 feet with a range of 3,445 nm and 870 km/hr.  A common identifier of the Hawker 4000 is the hawk profile painted in tan on the tail section.

If you’re currently in the G200 as an airframe, a newer and comparable version would be the Hawker 4000.

#7: Hawker 800XPi

A predecessor to the Hawker 400 is the Hawker 800 which was first produced in the early 1980s.  A later version of the Hawker 800 was the XP and XPi which was most notable by the addition of winglets.

Like the previously mentioned aircraft, the 800XPi is similar in size when it comes to passenger capacity and length.  The maximum speed in cruise is 745 km/hr while its range is the shortest out of the group at just under 2,000 nm and has a service ceiling at 41,000 feet.  However, it’s rate of climb is nothing to sneeze at – 1,948.8 feet/minute!

#6: Citation Sovereign

We now switch gears back to the Textron company to that of Cessna and the Citation Sovereign.  This particular aircraft is classified as a mid-size business jet and at the time of its introduction in 2004, the third largest in the Citation line (weight-wise).

A unique feature of the Sovereign is its ability to take off and land in short distances which is unusual in a business jet.  For corporations and private companies, this becomes a valuable feature for plants and factories situated in small towns with short runways.  Not only does the Sovereign get you there fast (848 km/hour), but it also is considered a transcontinental aircraft with a range of over 3,000 nm.

#5: Falcon 2000

In our plethora of business aircraft manufacturers, we come to Falcon (birds of prey do make good names).  Dassault Aviation is a French aircraft manufacturer that can be seen as a fairly healthy competitor to Textron’s companies as well as Gulfstream.  Probably the most notable of the Falcon line are the aircraft that have three engines, however, the 2000 is the one of the older models in the line with just two engines.

Like other aircraft in its class, the 2000 has comparable speed as well as range which is 3,000 nm.  The impressive thing about the 2000 is its ability to climb to 37,000 feet in just nineteen minutes – that’s just over 1,900 feet/minute!

#4: Challenger 605

We’ve finally come to our last brand name in jets (although not our last pick) which is that of Challenger.  It’s one of the few non-American manufactures and actually is produced by Canadair which you might recognize as the manufacturer of the Canadair Regional Jet (CRJ).  Coincidentally, Canadair is an independent company that is also a division of Bombardier Aerospace – famous for its Bombardier Business Jets, or BBJs, among others.

The Challenger 605 is the fourth aircraft in the 600 series which dates back to the late 1970s.  The 605 was introduced in 2006 as an upgrade to the 604.  Some new features included larger cabin windows, updated Rockwell Collins instrumentation and the capability of holding an “electronic flight bag”.   The most distinct visual feature is the rounded tailcone.

The 605 is comparable in size to the previously discussed aircraft, but is one of the fastest at 870 km/hour and a range close to 4,000 nm.

#3: Challenger 300

The Challenger 300, at first glance, can easily be confused with the Challenger 600 series which is not the case.  Unlike the 600 series, the 300 is recognized as a Bombardier (parent company of Canadair). 

It entered commercial service in early 2004 and is considered a super-mid-size jet.  This basically means it’s very comparable to all the other aircraft discussed, but has greater range capability.   The 300 has a range of approximately 5,700 km and caps out at 45,000 feet.  

#2: Gulfstream IV-SP (GIV-SP)

We’re back in the Gulfstream family (popular for a very good reason)! The GIV-SP is very comparable to other Gulfstream products, but represents the fine-tuning that the Savannah-based company did to improve their product line.

For instance, Honeywell advanced flight deck displays, electrical power generation, cabin temperature control and pressurization were added to this particular model.  Additionally, improved Automatic Power Unit (APU), flap system, redesigned landing gears, and other systems were improved in this particular model.

#1: Gulfstream 650 (G650)

Quite possibly my favorite Gulfstream is that of the G650.  Sleek, shiny, and the largest of the Gulfstream family, this aircraft has the ability to take you just about anywhere.  True to the company’s tagline for this aircraft, “Farther faster, first of its kind,” the G650 more than lives up to its standard.

It has done just that with a maximum range of 7,000 miles (you read that right), and an operating speed of 0.925 Mach.  It also has the heaviest takeoff weight at almost 100,000 pounds (that’s a lot of golf clubs, or fuel).

Besides the G650 being visually stunning, the wingspan is the most noticeable at approximately 100 feet which is nearly as long as the aircraft itself.  It also features the most advanced avionics developed by Gulfstream – the PlaneView™ II flight deck.  Like the G550, it has four displays with the EVS, HUD, Synthetic Vision as well as fly-by-wire technology which is computer-controlled and highly redundant – this is advanced as the technology gets.

A Clear Winner?

While Globair.com has their favorite picks which have proven to be popular among used aircraft owners, be sure to do your research when it comes picking the business jet that works for your company.  Remember to read our tips about purchasing an aircraft – while focused on single-engine aircraft, there are some excellent tips to consider.  However, you might want to consider going to a jet broker when it comes to your business needs.

Hopefully you now have a better idea of the common business aircraft on the market – just remember to save your pennies as these sleek, used aircraft run anywhere from $6.4 to $52.9 million!

 

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