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Last Quarter 2011 Market Condition Report

LAST QUARTER 2011 MARKET CONDITION REPORT

Globalair Article – November 2011 By Jeremy R.C. Cox

In March 2009 I wrote an article for Globalair.com that was Titled: ”The Not So Great Depression”,
you can re-read this by clicking on this link:
https://blog.globalair.com/post/The-Not-So-Great-Depression.aspx

I wrote that piece whilst we were all living under the developing fall-out that was created as a
direct result of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) that was first felt in the late summer of the previous
year, and was later proved to have started a full year before then (2007.)

The purpose of this article is to attempt to track just how far the Used Business Aircraft Market has
managed to pull itself away from the stinging clutches of GFC. I will use a statistical analysis process
that is fuelled by the numbers available to me through my subscription to AMSTAT. I will let you draw
your own conclusion as to where we currently stand overall, however it would be remiss of me if I didn’t
state that I believe that the Used Business Aircraft Market is on-track to achieve a soon to be issued
clean bill of health.

 

IT IS ALL IN THE NUMBERS, I.E. THE ‘PERCENTAGE FOR SALE’

November 2005 – Baseline

10,207 Turbo-Props, 1,127 or 11.04% were available for Sale

5,757 Light Jets, 833 or 14.47% were available for Sale

4,967 Medium Jets, 544 or 10.95% were available for Sale

3,180 Large Jets, 279 or 8.77% were available for Sale

 

November 2007 – Pre GFC Effect

11,121 Turbo-Props, 928 or 8.34% were available for Sale

6,417 Light Jets, 812 or 12.65% were available for Sale

5,757 Medium Jets, 584 or 10.14% were available for Sale

3,728 Large Jets, 267 or 7.16% were available for Sale

 

November 2009 – Within The Depths of GFC

12,049 Turbo-Props, 1,503 or 12.47% were available for Sale

7,285 Light Jets, 1,313 or 18.02% were available for Sale

6,568 Medium Jets, 1,098 or 16.72% were available for Sale

4,233 Large Jets, 597 or 14.10% were available for Sale

 

November 2011 – Emerging From GFC

12,616 Turbo-Props, 1,350 or 10.70% were available for Sale

7,615 Light Jets, 1,198 or 15.73% were available for Sale

6,826 Medium Jets, 924 or 13.54% were available for Sale

4,612 Large Jets, 554 or 12.01% were available for Sale

SUMMARY GRAPH SHOWING HISTORICAL TO CURRENT PERCENTAGE FOR SALE

 

As you can see from the numbers and the associated Graph, the Percentage-for-sale ‘Peak’ came
approximately
in 2009 (Light Jets peaked at 18% Mid 2009, while the rest all peaked in late 2009.)
We are about halfway back
to normal therefore 2012/2013 are looking like they might be ‘rock-solid.’

 

THE TIME IT TAKES TO SELL IN TOUGH TIMES

 

How long does it take to sell an Aircraft? Statistically for the same Groups, one can track the Number of
Days
On Market, i.e. the Average calendar time period in days from Initial Listing For Sale until Deal Closing.
The numbers are as follows:

November 2005 – Baseline

Average Days On Market for all Turbo-Props was 505

Average Days On Market for all Light Jets was 498

Average Days On Market for all Medium Jets was 436

Average Days On Market for all Large Jets was 447

 

November 2007 – Pre GFC Effect

Average Days On Market for all Turbo-Props was 492

Average Days On Market for all Light Jets was 517

Average Days On Market for all Medium Jets was 382

Average Days On Market for all Large Jets was 409

 

November 2009 – Within The Depths of GFC

Average Days On Market for all Turbo-Props was 420

Average Days On Market for all Light Jets was 471

Average Days On Market for all Medium Jets was 357

Average Days On Market for all Large Jets was 376

 

November 2011 – Emerging From GFC

Average Days On Market for all Turbo-Props was 553

Average Days On Market for all Light Jets was 588

Average Days On Market for all Medium Jets was 471

Average Days On Market for all Large Jets was 459

SUMMARY GRAPH SHOWING AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

 

 

What is really interesting about this graph is the fact that when an Aircraft MUST be sold ASAP, it is
‘Right-Priced’ and sold in less time than normal. The Lowest number of Days occurred immediately after
GFC showed it despicable face to us all.

Now for the Same Aircraft Groups we shall focus on the Average Year of Manufacture for each Group:

 

AGE AFFECTS POPULARITY

November 2005 – Baseline

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Turbo-Props was 1982

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Light Jets was 1983

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Medium Jets was 1985

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Large Jets was 1982

 

November 2007 – Pre GFC Effect

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Turbo-Props was 1984

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Light Jets was 1985

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Medium Jets was 1988

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Large Jets was 1985

 

November 2009 – Within The Depths of GFC

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Turbo-Props was 1987

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Light Jets was 1989

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Medium Jets was 1992

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Large Jets was 1992

 

November 2011 – Emerging From GFC

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Turbo-Props is 1988

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Light Jets is 1990

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Medium Jets is 1992

AVERAGE AGES OF FOR SALE AIRCRAFT ARE GETTING YOUNGER, AS THE FLEET AGES

 

 

SPECIFIC MODELS

 

The following figures are quite enlightening as to the issue of Age and Obsolescence:

 

Year of Manufacture

1985

1981

1976

1978

1983

1979

 

MU2 Solitare

Merlin IIIB

Learjet 25B

Sabreliner 75A

Challenger 600

Gulfstream II

 

 $1,375,000.00

 $1,795,000.00

 $1,297,500.00

 $2,990,000.00

 $9,000,000.00

 $7,775,000.00

Year of Analysis

MU2 Solitare

Merlin IIIB

Learjet 25B

Sabreliner 75A

Challenger 600

Gulfstream II

Nov-05

 $900,600.

 $ 828,800.

 $645,000.

 $683,000.

 $4,395,000.

 $ 2,912,692.

Nov-06

 $910,727.

 $767,475.

 $715,833.

 $513,333.

 $5,412,857.

 $3,007,333.

Nov-07

 $834,800.

 $883,494.

 $590,000.

 $629,000.

 $5,297,222.

 $2,696,000.

Dec-08

 $891,500.

 $963,132.

 $520,625.

 $825,000.

 $4,626,667.

 $2,171,574.

Nov-09

 $841,128.

 $930,000.

 $648,875.

 $666,666.

 $2,815,594.

 $908,890.

Dec-10

 $824,480.

 $706,600.

 $496,642.

 $499,900.

 $2,163,333.

 $819,928.

Nov-11

 $728,800.

 $717,750.

 $485,500.

 $350,000.

 $1,665,625.

 $826,691.

OBSELETE AIRCRAFT (BASED UPON VALUES)

Year of Manufacture

2002

2005

2003

2000

2001

1999

 

Socata TBM700B

King Air 350

Cessna CJ1

Hawker 800XP

Challenger 604

Gulfstream V

 

 $2,512,390.

 $5,881,474.

 $4,024,000.

 $11,895,000.

 $23,235,000.

 $39,100,000.

Year of Analysis

Socata TBM700B

King Air 350

Cessna CJ1

Hawker 800XP

Challenger 604

Gulfstream V

Nov-05

 $2,071,153.

 $2,651,666.

 $3,554,500.

 $10,208,000.

 $18,500,000.

 $36,573,333.

Nov-06

 $1,905,833.

 $3,658,333.

 $3,374,500.

 $9,768,000.

 $18,700,000.

 $33,950,000.

Nov-07

 $1,850,000.

 $4,211,923.

 $3,610,000.

 $9,158,214.

 $22,315,000.

 $45,000,000.

Dec-08

 $1,859,875.

 $3,633,947.

 $3,552,222.

 $8,918,700.

 $20,675,000.

 $38,683,333.

Nov-09

 $1,685,556.

 $3,594,565.

 $2,944,750.

 $5,852,250.

 $13,140,455.

 $25,185,714.

Dec-10

 $1,634,989.

 $2,941,500.

 $2,641,500.

 $4,610,313.

 $13,289,000.

 $26,247,500.

Nov-11

 $1,587,857.

 $3,034,211.

 $2,299,087.

 $4,080,909.

 $11,356,250.

 $26,400,000.

CURRENT OR NEAR CURRENT PRODUCTION AIRCRAFT

With all that said I believe you can see that the market is progressing and should you be condsidering
the next step please review
Globalair.com - Aircraft Exchange.  Very current with aircraft, tools to use
such as A.Buyer and comparison tool.  If you are thinking it you might want to use Globalair.com.

See you next Month!

Oh...that Airplane Smell!

Some things in life are just quintessentially perfect. You know it instinctively deep-down in your heart without having to ever consciously ask yourself...”do I like this; is this right?” Some experiences like this can be sensed rather than defined, much like spirituality. One item on this list of perfect things for me is that unique scent that all aircraft emit and pervade while either sitting quietly in a hangar, or dancing through the skies.

Even though I often think, tongue-in-cheek of the modified words of Robert Duvall in the 1979 epic Apocalypse Now where he says (and I substitute): “Smell that?..You smell that?..Nothing in the world smells like that...I love the smell of Jet-Fuel in the morning!”; this happens to me every-time that I park my car and get out at the Spirit of St. Louis Airport where my office is.

Coupled with the smell of burnt aviation kerosene, another sensory trigger for me is the noise as well. Unfortunately in this modern age of carbon credit-touting politically correct twits, black-smoke belching-ear splitting jet exhausts have overall been relegated to the past. It is a rare event now when a straight-pipe turbojet flies in and out of my home airport (thankfully we do have several Sabre 60’s that occasionally blast into the skies), but nothing compares to a venerable Stage-Two Gulfstream, or a Viper-powered Hawker, or a Learjet 23. I’m sorry but all three of these birds are music to my ears!

Airshows are about the only places now where you can still joyfully live through and cower under that glorious noise and black smoke. My trigger is tripped when I talk about the type of sonic wave that you get to feel on the inside of your insides. Of course your heart strings are a-twanging and you might have sweaty palms from the adrenaline that is being mainlined directly into your bloodstream so yes you are felling this great noise and spectacle; however I talking about that ribcage thing where you’re largest body cavity, your chest and stomach resonate like a guitar body. That type of cachophany is so great that you experiment to see if the intensity in your guts changes if you open and close your mouth. Without an afterburning jet-pipe available to you, a similar type of resonance can be frequently experienced by bashing on a bass drum that came from a parade band. I guess that gut sounds like those are just instinctual and therefore they race to the core of the many men out there like me.

Jets are all fine and dandy, but real aircraft are constructed from wood, dope and fabric, and the only true path to achieving mental nirvana is in my opinion, the time spent around a flying machine that has a smoke-soot-oil-fire-breathing radial or V12 behemoth bolted to it. Sex doesn’t even start to describe the emotions stirred within by one of these witchy-beauties!

So let’s get back to the premise of this article: ‘that smell thing.’

Most aircraft today are manufactured by the mating of aluminium, steel, copper, plastic, rubber and a touch of leather to complete their creation. Added to these smells is the aroma of hydraulic fluid, engine oil, 100LL or Jet-A. This amalgam of scents produce a heady bouquet that will turn the head of even the most casual observer as they point their eyes and nose towards the emitter of that lovely smell. These smells communicate soul-to-soul as far as I’m concerned.

The true connoisseur however has a demanding nose that won’t get out of bed for this modern- aviation smell as described above. No the only thing to get the died-in-the-wool enthusiast’s Goosebumps raised is the delectable perfume created by the symbiotic relationship created and found in harmony within the structures of a wood and fabric aircraft of the time period between the wars of the 20th century. Forgive me for being rude towards the earlier aircraft of that age, but personally I don’t savour much the smell of castor oil which was predominate in the total-loss oil systems found on many early aero engines.

I have an uncle in England who made a deep impression on me at a young and tender age, one weekend when he and my aunt motored down to our farm in the Westcountry from London in a Porsche. His words were: “Cor I bloody love this car, because it smells just like it would if I was riding inside a lady’s handbag.” Strange words many of you might think, but you know what uncle, I get it!

To make my eyes glaze over just add the following ingredients all mixed together in the shape of a DH82 Tiger-Moth, or DH98 Mosquito:
• Freshly mown grass
• Sitka Spruce
• Mahogany and Birch plywood
• Balsa
• Aerolite resin
• Butyrate doped Mercerized cotton
• Tanned cowskin leather
• Cochineal sozzeled control cables
• Petrol grease
• Mineral hydraulic and engine oils
• High-octane aviation spirit
• Natural India rubber
• Aeroshell 7 grease
• Canvas webbing
• Compass fluid
• Varnish

Oh, that beautiful airplane smell! Who says that machines can never have a soul?

What does your favourite airplane smell like?

Trickle-Down is where the action is in Aircraft Sales

Today it is very easy to comfortably wear the rut of community despair that fits so snugly across yours and everyone else’s shoulders, while walking from meeting to meeting with a look of long and painful sorrow and a low-hanging head while muttering phrases like: “I can’t believe these values”; “my aircraft is barely above its salvage number.” “Nothing is selling”; “woe is me”, etc.

Well ladies and gentlemen please listen very carefully: There exists a business aircraft market that is zinging from real and deadly serious business that is being conducted in tens of millions of dollars every single day (or at least on the days that the FAA Registry is open for business.) This very same market shall also soon provide you with the salvation that you had so long ago given up on ever hearing it knocking at your door ever again.

Trickle-down wealth is the path to economic nirvana, and believe-me the golden tentacles of the few, are already seeping down and restoring the faith and confidence amongst the many. Have I got your attention? So where can salvation be found you may ask? Two words: ‘Large Cabins.’

The large cabin business aircraft used market woke-up last summer, and quickly went from a pipe and slippers to wearing running shoes in the blink of an eye. I believe that three factors caused the Atropine shot to this market’s heart:

1. Asking and selling prices hit their lowest point after the aircraft that had to be sold were actively being advertised waiting for a buyer, long after the casual     sellers had pulled their aircraft from the marketplace

2. Corporations and the mega-rich alike, decided that they had-had about enough of the politically-correct moratorium on private flying and decided that flying was okay again

3. The DOW Jones Industrial Average started trekking northward to conquer new dizzying heights

To support my assertions please allow me to show you the numbers:

I as well as the good folks at AMSTAT Corporation define a large cabin as any aircraft that has a maximum take-off weight greater than 40,000 lbs.

In May of 2010, the average asking price of the composite of all ‘used’ large cabin business aircraft dropped to a low of $12,750,000. In June this number started climbing until it crested in December at $13,800,000. The reason for the crest is that by the end of last year all of the ‘best-deals’ had been snatched up by hungry deal-makers. Now we shall again see this composite asking price climb again in the second wave buying spree that is already underway.

Two years ago, in February 2009, the Percentage of Active Fleet For-Sale (Large Cabin) peaked at 15.3%. Today that has dropped to 11.4%. Specific models chosen as a snapshot are at the following numbers:

Falcon 2000EX  =  9.6%
Challenger 604 =  11.3%
Falcon 900EX =  7.2%
Embraer Legacy =  9.2%
Gulfstream V =  3.6%
Gulfstream G550 =  3.5%
Global Express =  10.2%
Global XRS =  7.3%
Boeing BBJ =  7.4%

Remember that a normal healthy market for most used business aircraft (all sizes and classes) is 10%.

Since a peak number in August 2009, the number of large cabin aircraft that were available for purchase has dropped by 20% (from 635 down to 510.)

While the House, Senate; and most prospective used business aircraft buyers and sellers settled down to their long, quiet and lazy summer holidays, the DOW began its climb from 9,700 points to well over 12,000 points today. The large cabin buyers then made their long awaited jump into the used business aircraft market as soon as the climbing ascent of the DOW became a certifiable trend.

Unfortunately the majority of all aircraft in the Midsize and Smaller markets still remain stalled today, and some are plumbing the depressing depths of even lower values. Regardless of this I can confidently argue that the time is definitely coming nigh for everyone in all categories below the large cabin segment. It is distinctly a simple law of nature that ‘trickle-down’ gold will eventually make it to the absolute bottom of the deepest of all subterranean markets. All you have to do is slough off your coat of misery, rise up your head, think positive, be positive, and most importantly live positive, and soon the world about you shall change and blossom into greatness as it passes through our long lost friends: ‘it’s alive’, ‘it’s getting up’, ‘fair’, ‘average’ and ‘good.’ Trust me on this. So, will you please stop moping about and making the market look bleak and untidy, and instead cheer-up and again restart living the dream?

Another good point to look at is the number of aircraft with "Real Pricing" listed on Globalair.com's Aircraft Exchange.  More and more listings are getting into the "Real market value" than ever before.  It might surprise you to know that we are getting back to business!

While the numbers are showing an upswing what have you seen to prove me right or wrong?  Pilots, bankers, brokers, dealers, CFO's what say you?

February is a big month for Boeing first flights

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February is a big month for first flights at the Boeing Co. The aircraft maker, 41 years ago today, first flew its iconic Boeing 747 jumbo jet, whose legend rests among the biggest rock stars of commercial airlplanes. (Hat tip to Avtips, which earlier today tweeted the YouTube video embedded above.)

Today also marks a year and a day since Boeing first flew its 747-8, helping mark the 40th anniversary of the original 7-4.

[more]

(Read more on why Boeing dubbed its commercial jets with 7_7 model IDs.)

Still, we can go even further back in history to find dozens of first flights and other notable moments in aviation history that occurred at Boeing in February. The list below comes from the log book history on the company’s web site.  Let us know in the comments which is your favorite Boeing moment.

 

1921
Feb. 24: The first wholly Douglas-designed, Douglas-built aircraft, The Cloudster, makes its first flight. It is the first airplane to lift a useful load exceeding its own weight.

1933
Feb. 1: The last Boeing biplane designed and built in Seattle, the Model 236 (XF6B-1), based on the F4B/P-12 series, makes its first flight.

1939
Feb. 20: The Douglas DC-5 makes its first flight. Only 12 are built, five as commercial DC-5 transports and seven as R3D military transports.

1942
Feb. 14: The Douglas C-54 Skymaster makes its first flight. Designed as the DC-4, it is adapted for military use. During the war Skymasters complete 79,632 transoceanic flights with only three ditchings, one of which was a test.
Feb. 26: The luxurious Boeing Stratoliners are stripped of their civilian finery and pressed into military service as C-75s. The first flights carry antitank ammunition and medical supplies to British forces in Libya.

1946
Feb. 15: The military prototype of the Douglas DC-6, the YC-122, makes its first flight.

1952
Feb. 18: The first North American AJ-2 Savage bomber flies.

1958
Feb. 28: The first Douglas Thor-Agena rocket launches Discoverer 1, the first photo reconnaissance satellite and the first satellite to enter polar orbit.

1962
Feb. 20: In the first orbital flight of a McDonnell-built Mercury spacecraft, John Glenn becomes the first American to orbit the Earth.

1963
Feb. 27: The first flight of Hughes OH-6A Cayuse light observation helicopter

1965
Feb. 25: The Douglas DC-9 twinjet airliner makes its first flight.

1972
February: The first Boeing AWACS plane, a modified 707-320B, makes its first flight.

1982
Feb. 19: The Boeing 757-200 makes its first flight.

1987
Feb. 19: The Boeing E-6A TACAMO prototype flies for the first time.

1989
Feb. 14: The first McDonnell Douglas Delta II rocket launches the Navstar II-1 global positioning satellite, designed by Rockwell.

1993
Feb. 22: The McDonnell Douglas MD-90 commercial transport makes its first flight.

1997
Feb. 9: The first Next-Generation Boeing 737, a 737-700, makes its first flight.

2001
Feb. 15: The 757 Special Freighter makes its first flight.

2003
Feb. 24: The 777-300ER completes its first flight.

2005
Feb. 14: Two Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems (J-UCAS) Boeing X-45As perform their first simulated combat mission, eliminating two simulated pop-up ground threats.
Feb. 15: The first 777-200LR Worldliner, the world's longest range commercial airplane is rolled out in Everett, Wash. It can carry 301 passengers up to 9,420 nautical miles.
Feb. 24: Boeing officials and Italian Air Force customers roll out the first KC-767A advanced aerial refueling tanker in Wichita.

2008
Feb. 24: Boeing, Virgin Atlantic and GE Aviation conduct the first commercial aviation flight using a sustainable biomass-to-liquid fuel mixed with traditional kerosene-based jet fuel. The fuel blend includes oils from Babassu nuts extracted from indigenous Brazilian plants, and coconuts from the Philippines.

Report: Cessna may replace Sovereign 680, Citation XLS+


The Citation XLS+ may soon be replaced with an upgraded model

FlightGlobal reported last week that Cessna Aircraft Company is developing a pair of business jets to compete with the super-light and mid-sized offerings from Embraer, its Legacy 450 and Legacy 500.

The two new Cessna models would replace the Citation XLS+ and Sovereign 680. As most of Cessna’s new deliveries have focused on the very light jet Citation Mustang, the company’s executives expect orders to shift toward light and midsize aircraft.

The news comes as Embraer announced last week that it will open a manufacturing plant in Florida.

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