Last Quarter 2011 Market Condition Report

LAST QUARTER 2011 MARKET CONDITION REPORT

Globalair Article – November 2011 By Jeremy R.C. Cox

In March 2009 I wrote an article for Globalair.com that was Titled: ”The Not So Great Depression”,
you can re-read this by clicking on this link:
https://blog.globalair.com/post/The-Not-So-Great-Depression.aspx

I wrote that piece whilst we were all living under the developing fall-out that was created as a
direct result of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) that was first felt in the late summer of the previous
year, and was later proved to have started a full year before then (2007.)

The purpose of this article is to attempt to track just how far the Used Business Aircraft Market has
managed to pull itself away from the stinging clutches of GFC. I will use a statistical analysis process
that is fuelled by the numbers available to me through my subscription to AMSTAT. I will let you draw
your own conclusion as to where we currently stand overall, however it would be remiss of me if I didn’t
state that I believe that the Used Business Aircraft Market is on-track to achieve a soon to be issued
clean bill of health.

 

IT IS ALL IN THE NUMBERS, I.E. THE ‘PERCENTAGE FOR SALE’

November 2005 – Baseline

10,207 Turbo-Props, 1,127 or 11.04% were available for Sale

5,757 Light Jets, 833 or 14.47% were available for Sale

4,967 Medium Jets, 544 or 10.95% were available for Sale

3,180 Large Jets, 279 or 8.77% were available for Sale

 

November 2007 – Pre GFC Effect

11,121 Turbo-Props, 928 or 8.34% were available for Sale

6,417 Light Jets, 812 or 12.65% were available for Sale

5,757 Medium Jets, 584 or 10.14% were available for Sale

3,728 Large Jets, 267 or 7.16% were available for Sale

 

November 2009 – Within The Depths of GFC

12,049 Turbo-Props, 1,503 or 12.47% were available for Sale

7,285 Light Jets, 1,313 or 18.02% were available for Sale

6,568 Medium Jets, 1,098 or 16.72% were available for Sale

4,233 Large Jets, 597 or 14.10% were available for Sale

 

November 2011 – Emerging From GFC

12,616 Turbo-Props, 1,350 or 10.70% were available for Sale

7,615 Light Jets, 1,198 or 15.73% were available for Sale

6,826 Medium Jets, 924 or 13.54% were available for Sale

4,612 Large Jets, 554 or 12.01% were available for Sale

SUMMARY GRAPH SHOWING HISTORICAL TO CURRENT PERCENTAGE FOR SALE

 

As you can see from the numbers and the associated Graph, the Percentage-for-sale ‘Peak’ came
approximately
in 2009 (Light Jets peaked at 18% Mid 2009, while the rest all peaked in late 2009.)
We are about halfway back
to normal therefore 2012/2013 are looking like they might be ‘rock-solid.’

 

THE TIME IT TAKES TO SELL IN TOUGH TIMES

 

How long does it take to sell an Aircraft? Statistically for the same Groups, one can track the Number of
Days
On Market, i.e. the Average calendar time period in days from Initial Listing For Sale until Deal Closing.
The numbers are as follows:

November 2005 – Baseline

Average Days On Market for all Turbo-Props was 505

Average Days On Market for all Light Jets was 498

Average Days On Market for all Medium Jets was 436

Average Days On Market for all Large Jets was 447

 

November 2007 – Pre GFC Effect

Average Days On Market for all Turbo-Props was 492

Average Days On Market for all Light Jets was 517

Average Days On Market for all Medium Jets was 382

Average Days On Market for all Large Jets was 409

 

November 2009 – Within The Depths of GFC

Average Days On Market for all Turbo-Props was 420

Average Days On Market for all Light Jets was 471

Average Days On Market for all Medium Jets was 357

Average Days On Market for all Large Jets was 376

 

November 2011 – Emerging From GFC

Average Days On Market for all Turbo-Props was 553

Average Days On Market for all Light Jets was 588

Average Days On Market for all Medium Jets was 471

Average Days On Market for all Large Jets was 459

SUMMARY GRAPH SHOWING AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

 

 

What is really interesting about this graph is the fact that when an Aircraft MUST be sold ASAP, it is
‘Right-Priced’ and sold in less time than normal. The Lowest number of Days occurred immediately after
GFC showed it despicable face to us all.

Now for the Same Aircraft Groups we shall focus on the Average Year of Manufacture for each Group:

 

AGE AFFECTS POPULARITY

November 2005 – Baseline

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Turbo-Props was 1982

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Light Jets was 1983

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Medium Jets was 1985

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Large Jets was 1982

 

November 2007 – Pre GFC Effect

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Turbo-Props was 1984

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Light Jets was 1985

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Medium Jets was 1988

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Large Jets was 1985

 

November 2009 – Within The Depths of GFC

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Turbo-Props was 1987

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Light Jets was 1989

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Medium Jets was 1992

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Large Jets was 1992

 

November 2011 – Emerging From GFC

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Turbo-Props is 1988

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Light Jets is 1990

Average For-Sale Year of Manufacture for all Medium Jets is 1992

AVERAGE AGES OF FOR SALE AIRCRAFT ARE GETTING YOUNGER, AS THE FLEET AGES

 

 

SPECIFIC MODELS

 

The following figures are quite enlightening as to the issue of Age and Obsolescence:

 

Year of Manufacture

1985

1981

1976

1978

1983

1979

 

MU2 Solitare

Merlin IIIB

Learjet 25B

Sabreliner 75A

Challenger 600

Gulfstream II

 

 $1,375,000.00

 $1,795,000.00

 $1,297,500.00

 $2,990,000.00

 $9,000,000.00

 $7,775,000.00

Year of Analysis

MU2 Solitare

Merlin IIIB

Learjet 25B

Sabreliner 75A

Challenger 600

Gulfstream II

Nov-05

 $900,600.

 $ 828,800.

 $645,000.

 $683,000.

 $4,395,000.

 $ 2,912,692.

Nov-06

 $910,727.

 $767,475.

 $715,833.

 $513,333.

 $5,412,857.

 $3,007,333.

Nov-07

 $834,800.

 $883,494.

 $590,000.

 $629,000.

 $5,297,222.

 $2,696,000.

Dec-08

 $891,500.

 $963,132.

 $520,625.

 $825,000.

 $4,626,667.

 $2,171,574.

Nov-09

 $841,128.

 $930,000.

 $648,875.

 $666,666.

 $2,815,594.

 $908,890.

Dec-10

 $824,480.

 $706,600.

 $496,642.

 $499,900.

 $2,163,333.

 $819,928.

Nov-11

 $728,800.

 $717,750.

 $485,500.

 $350,000.

 $1,665,625.

 $826,691.

OBSELETE AIRCRAFT (BASED UPON VALUES)

Year of Manufacture

2002

2005

2003

2000

2001

1999

 

Socata TBM700B

King Air 350

Cessna CJ1

Hawker 800XP

Challenger 604

Gulfstream V

 

 $2,512,390.

 $5,881,474.

 $4,024,000.

 $11,895,000.

 $23,235,000.

 $39,100,000.

Year of Analysis

Socata TBM700B

King Air 350

Cessna CJ1

Hawker 800XP

Challenger 604

Gulfstream V

Nov-05

 $2,071,153.

 $2,651,666.

 $3,554,500.

 $10,208,000.

 $18,500,000.

 $36,573,333.

Nov-06

 $1,905,833.

 $3,658,333.

 $3,374,500.

 $9,768,000.

 $18,700,000.

 $33,950,000.

Nov-07

 $1,850,000.

 $4,211,923.

 $3,610,000.

 $9,158,214.

 $22,315,000.

 $45,000,000.

Dec-08

 $1,859,875.

 $3,633,947.

 $3,552,222.

 $8,918,700.

 $20,675,000.

 $38,683,333.

Nov-09

 $1,685,556.

 $3,594,565.

 $2,944,750.

 $5,852,250.

 $13,140,455.

 $25,185,714.

Dec-10

 $1,634,989.

 $2,941,500.

 $2,641,500.

 $4,610,313.

 $13,289,000.

 $26,247,500.

Nov-11

 $1,587,857.

 $3,034,211.

 $2,299,087.

 $4,080,909.

 $11,356,250.

 $26,400,000.

CURRENT OR NEAR CURRENT PRODUCTION AIRCRAFT

With all that said I believe you can see that the market is progressing and should you be condsidering
the next step please review
Globalair.com - Aircraft Exchange.  Very current with aircraft, tools to use
such as A.Buyer and comparison tool.  If you are thinking it you might want to use Globalair.com.

See you next Month!