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Aircraft Market Report: 2006 Q2

by Jeremy Cox 1. August 2006 00:00
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Every three or four months I will now be providing you with a Quarterly Market Report that highlights 49 fixed wing and 9 types of rotary wing types of aircraft. Most of the data that will be contained in this report is very courteously and kindly provided by the folks from Kansas at the Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest, http://www.aircraftbluebook.com/ I would like to especially thank Mr. Paul Wyatt, the Bluebook Editor for the use of his data in the production of my report. I hope that you find the report of some use to you.

Column A, Rows 2 through 59 are the featured Aircraft Types. I have grouped these into a series whenever I deemed it as necessary. What I mean by this is that, if we take the Mooney M20 Series as an example, I have lumped (I can almost hear your protests from here, already) every ‘20' designated Mooney aircraft into one large group that encompasses over 30+ separate models that range from the 1955 Mark 20 through the 2006 M20R Ovation 2GX.

Column B, Rows 2 through 59 are the Current Low Retail Prices quoted by the Summer Edition of the Aircraft Bluebook Aircraft Price Digest for each Aircraft Type, series. If you think back to the example of the Mooney M20 Series in the last paragraph, you will now understand that the number in this column at Row 5, that the 1955 Mark 20 is currently reported by the Bluebook as having a (Base) Retail Value of $20,000.00 USD. Continuing on with this thread, Column C, Rows 2 through 59 are the Current High Retail Prices quoted by the Summer Edition of the Aircraft Bluebook Aircraft Price Digest for each Aircraft Type, series. In this case at Row 5, the 2006 M20R Ovation 2GX has a (Base) Retail Value of $478,000.00 USD. Columns D and E, Rows 2 through 59 are pretty self explanatory, i.e. These are the same reported Values from the Bluebook, 12 Months Ago. I am actually planning on keeping these numbers the same for the remaining two Quarters (Fall and Winter) and thus keeping the same reference point for a year, with its replacement occurring on its anniversary, i.e. every Summer edition of this Report will have a new numbers here (yes, you have sussed my drift; the Current Low and High Retail Prices in this report will become the new ‘Year Ago' Reference Figures, this time next year.)

Now my spreadsheet gets interesting with Column F, Rows 2 through 59 because I have used the following formula to crunch these numbers into a comprehensible market indictor:

((B5/D5-1)+C5/E5-1)-1/2 = ‘Percentage'

What I have done is, I have divided the current ‘Low Retail' by the old (last year), then both the current ‘High Retail' by the old (last year) and then both resultants are added together and then finally this result is divided by ‘two' to provide an averaged percentage result.

Column G, Rows 2 through 59 are the Annual Hours Flown in a twelve month period, as quoted by the Bluebook.

Column H, Rows 2 through 59 are the normal Knots True Airspeed for each aircraft Series, as quoted by the Bluebook.

Column I, Rows 2 through 59 are the typical Nautical Mile Ranges of each aircraft, as quoted by the Bluebook.

Column J, Rows 2 through 59 are the Standard US Gallon Fuel Capacities of each aircraft, as quoted by the Bluebook.

Column K Column I, Rows 2 through 59 purely my own input and the figures entered in this column represent the typical US Gallon per Flight hour Fuel Consumption of each aircraft.

Column L, Rows 2 through 59 is thus a simple computation with the use of the following formula:

I2/J2 = ‘Nautical Miles per US Gallon'

What I have done is, I have divided the typical Nautical Mile Ranges for each aircraft by the typical ‘Standard' US Gallon Fuel Capacities of each aircraft, which results in a fairly accurate ‘Efficiency' number that denotes NM/USG.

Next I am going to skip a column in my explanation and move onto Columns N and O. These are the current figures (as of July 15, 2006) that were being reported by this website, https://www.globalair.com/.

Columns P and Q denote the respective, current and twelve month ago figures (as of July 15, 2006) that were being reported by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at their website, http://www.opec.org/home/.

Columns R and S denote the respective, current and twelve month ago figures (as of July 15, 2006) that were being reported by Dow Jones for their Industrial Average, derived from their chosen portfolio of publicly traded corporations.

Columns T and U denote the respective, current and twelve month ago figures (as of July 15, 2006) that were being reported by the British Bankers Association for the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) percentage interest rate, available as an Excel spreadsheet like this, from their website: http://www.bba.org.uk/.

 

Now my spreadsheet should be easily understood. So what can now be gleaned from this document?

  • Well I believe that it will be found to be useful on many different levels and for various purposes:
  • It is a quick handy reference for anyone who wants to know the current value ‘range' (the high and the low) for their type of aircraft series.
  • The performance data is a ‘down and dirty' handy reference (please don't use the data for flight planning purposes because you may crash!)
  • The Annual Fuel Cost portion coupled with the NM/USG ‘Efficiency' portion of the spreadsheet is very telling, especially in today's ever tightening world oil supply markets.
  • And finally, my spreadsheet should be somewhat of a reliable barometer of the current condition of the used aircraft marketplace (the 12 Month Percentage Change) as it relates to the leading economic indicators i.e. the performance of the stock market, the cost of oil and the cost of money.

My spreadsheet thus shows that:

The following aircraft/helicopters saw the largest gains in value, including the normal yearly/model new price increases:

THE WINNERS

  • 16.29% Bell 206/407 Series
  • 12.74% Cessna 210 Series
  • 10.17% Cessna 441
  • 8.90% Mooney M20 Series
  • 7.71% Falcon 50/50EX Series
  • 7.22% Challenger 300

The Overall Market has shown an Increase in value ‘Across the Board', equal to 3.88% over the last twelve months.

THE LOSERS

  • 8.06% Falcon 20/200 Series
  • 6.35% Bolkow/MBB/Eurocopter BK105/BK109/BK117 Series
  • 4.86 Robinson R22 Series
  • 4.39% Cirrus SR20/SR22 Series

 

What does this mean, I hear you ask?

If you have a new/low-time, medium-large aircraft like the Challenger 300 to sell, you will see it sell for more than you paid for it several months ago.

If you are operating one of the older dinosaur jets like a Falcon 20 or 200, your value is dropping much faster now, due to the price of fuel and also the less desirability of owning a forty-plus year old aircraft.

I need to do more research into the smaller aircraft markets, and by the next quarterly market report I will provide a better insight into what is occurring there (maybe it's the cost of money, I don't know), but I am certain that many of you engaged in the operation and sale of these aircraft already know the background behind the percentage points listed in my spreadsheet.

So in November we shall have a new, Quarterly Market Report.

 

I would like to end this month's column by asking for your help. From time to time I have the pleasure of speaking with people that, like you, read this column each month. I feel a certain responsibility in providing fairly decent content here and therefore would like to ask you, dear reader, what it is that you would like to see from time-to-time, discussed in this column. Obviously as I always state at the end of my ranting each month: ‘Any input that you care to make will be of great interest to all of the readers here at Globalair.com. So please don't be bashful and go ahead and write your comments and suggestions here. Please don't forget that whatever you write here, can be seen publicly by everyone that visits this page, so please be funny, be inspired, but most importantly of all, please be nice. See you next month.'



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